The Story
I have a friend who’s a City Manager in a small but growing suburb of the Twin Cities. A few years ago, he was becoming increasingly frustrated — and alarmed — by a problem that the surrounding county just wouldn’t take seriously. The problem was the lack of a sidewalk on a busy four-lane county road that had lots of traffic and a growing number of pedestrians. Several new apartment buildings had recently gone up along this stretch, and the new residents were walking about a quarter mile along the shoulder to get to the gas station and convenience store at the next intersection. It was just plain unsafe.
The City Manager kept pestering the county officials, but all they would say was, "Yes, we have that sidewalk planned for year six of our five-year capital improvements program." Then, one dark, snowy winter morning, while driving to work along that very road, now narrowed by piles of plowed snow, he saw something that shocked and scared him — a mother and child walking along the edge of the road, in the right-hand lane, with cars and school buses speeding past them. He quickly pulled out his phone, snapped a photo, and sent it to the county officials. And guess what? The county built the sidewalk during the next construction season. So, what changed at the county?
What Really Happened
The City Manager’s story is a textbook example of Kingdon’s framework. The problem was a road that was unsafe for pedestrians. The solution was a sidewalk. The political circumstance was the county’s lack of urgency in funding that solution. The city was growing fast, but the county’s capital improvement program hadn’t caught up with the development of two new apartment buildings. The political circumstances shifted, and the policy window opened when the City Manager — our policy entrepreneur in this story — emailed that simple, blurry photo to county officials. It got their attention and spurred them to act.
Another Example
Consider the rise of the "Defund the Police" movement after the killing of George Floyd by four Minneapolis police officers in 2020. The problem was old, well-known, and systemic: police brutality, racial bias, and the militarization and over-funding of police departments. The potential solutions were also well-known, and included community policing, accountability reforms, de-escalation training, and reallocating police funds to social services that could reduce the need for traditional policing.
The political circumstances changed when a teenager’s nine-minute video of Floyd’s killing went viral, sparking civil protests across the country and opening a new policy window. This moment turned Minneapolis city council members and elected officials nationwide into instant policy entrepreneurs, giving them the clear justification they needed to propose bold changes to police funding and practices. While few police departments have actually been defunded, and most have seen their budgets increase, in many cities these funds are now supporting changes in how policing is done. And importantly, for the first time, four police officers were sent to prison for killing a Black man, and more officers across the country are being held accountable for their actions.
The Lesson
Next time you’re trying to figure out why a policy change is or isn’t happening, start by identifying the problems, solutions, and political circumstances. Then, look for the policy entrepreneur trying to pry open that policy window. Who knows? Someday, that person might be you.
"Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policymaking."
- Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan
[1] Kingdon, John W. Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, Updated Second Edition. London: Pearson, 2010.
The Theory
In his 1984 book Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, John Kingdon introduced a framework for understanding policy change. He explained that a policy change happens only when three streams — problems, solutions, and political circumstances — come together to create a moment of opportunity, or a "policy window." When a policy window opens, a "policy entrepreneur" can make a real difference.
Kingdon notes that there are always plenty of known problems that aren’t being addressed, solutions that already exist but aren’t being implemented, and officials with legitimate concerns who seem powerless to act, usually because other interests are competing for limited resources. Policy changes often occur after a specific event or crisis. For example, several airplane crashes in a row might lead to stricter regulations on aircraft design and production, or a bridge collapse might highlight the need for better infrastructure funding. One notable case was the 1991 fire in the 38-story One Meridian Plaza office tower in Philadelphia, which killed three firefighters and led to changes in building and safety codes, including the requirement for automatic sprinklers in high-rise buildings nationwide. [1]
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How to get a sidewalk built - quick
November 11, 2024